The doom and gloom around non-designers using AI tools to replace designers is increasing. I don’t doubt this is a trend, but I suspect that it won’t lead to better business for most companies.
Addy Osmani in The 70% problem: Hard truths about AI-assisted coding:
This “70% problem” suggests that current AI coding tools are best viewed as:
- Prototyping accelerators for experienced developers
- Learning aids for those committed to understanding development
- MVP generators for validating ideas quickly
This seems very similar to the trajectory of AI design tools. There is a difference though: code can be analyzed and understood, while generated UIs are much harder to predict how they will work, that is: how people will react once they start to use. UX and usability cannot be easily AI-ed, since they need deeper reasoning (rationales for feasibility and desirability) and an approach to creation (iteration, experiments). This is beyond the capabilities of such systems at the moment, and it’s unclear if the current tech will ever be able to do this. Even if Figma collects ten thousand years’ worth of UI design, the reasoning remains outside its bounds.
The other 30% is also interesting. Getting software til production goes beyond pretty UI design. Larger and more mature products will need experienced designers more than ever to untangle complexity, it’s just unclear where that experience comes from if AI tools cannibalize junior roles.
The above problem together with the current market trends (laying off a bunch of designers and researchers, especially from more strategic roles) does mean, that we will get tons of unusable, soulless, money-grabbing apps until at least the next vibe shift.
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